And Porn Shall Lead

Recently, it was reported that the porn industry has elected to "adopt" HD DVD as the format of choice for high def DVDs. This isn't precisely true - no such declaration was made and Blu-Ray has not been summarily rejected. However, from an economic standpoint, HD DVD makes more sense than Blu-Ray (and it offers the path of least resistance) so it is likely that, on an even playing field, adult movie distributors would choose HD DVD over Blu-Ray. The point of this commentary, however, isn't to argue the degree to which HD DVD will be adopted by the Lords of Porn, but whether this adoption will help HD DVD's flagging sales.

January sales figures paint a less-than-rosy picture for HD DVD. At the end of January 2007, the total number of Blu-Ray discs sold is almost identical to the total number of HD DVD discs sold, despite HD DVD's having had a significant head start. For January 2007 sales, Blu-Ray doubled HD DVD. That's the kind of trend that will make HD DVD an also-ran format fairly quickly, especially if Sony manages to rehabilitate the reputation of its PS3. Some have speculated that the HD DVD/porn connection might boost the visibility and viability of Toshiba's format. But is that realistic? For the sake of this commentary, assume that the porn industry is indeed adopting HD DVD.

It is true that one of the reasons VHS triumphed over Betamax is because the porn industry selected VHS as the format of choice. In the 1980s, large numbers of consumers purchased VHS recorders in order to be able to enjoy the benefits of porn at home. No longer did it require a trip to a seedy adult theater to see a sex film. Now, such movies could be enjoyed in the privacy of one's home. This was a big deal and represented a major shift in how pornographic movies were made, marketed, and sold. By the late 1980s, nearly everything was being produced for the home market. With the Betamax porn market limited compared to its competitor's, the format died. (There were other reasons for Betamax's demise, chief among them VHS's ability to store six hours of video, albeit at poor quality – a total that Betamax could not match.)

However, this is 20 years later. The shift from standard definition DVDs to high definition DVDs doesn't offer the same degree of advantage to the consumer that the shift from theaters to VHS did. What's the benefit of porn on HD DVD? Being able to see various sex organs in greater detail? It's hard to imagine large numbers of people buying a high definition DVD player for porn.

In fact, the various home video formats (VHS, DVD) are gradually becoming obsolete for adult fare. VHS is pretty much dead across-the-board. For the porn industry, DVD sales, however, are also in decline. It's not hard to intuit the reason: on-line porn is booming. Internet porn has numerous advantages: it's cheaper, more varied, and available on demand. It's also anonymous, which is important to many consumers. There's no need to show your face at a "disreputable" location like a local adult movie store. The porn industry recognizes this and, while they aren't yet ready to give up on DVDs altogether, they are re-tooling for the future, and that's on-line.

Given the business model, it's unlikely that porn distributors have plans to expand much into the high def DVD realm. Sure, there will be titles available but, as long as HD DVD and/or Blu-Ray remains a niche format, the flood will remain dammed. Porn led the march to VHS and the mainstream consumer base followed. With the high def DVD format, it will be the other way around, if at all. Porn will only expand into high def market if and when it becomes mainstream.

Unfortunately, even with HD DVD struggling, the format war rages on. Considering Microsoft's alliance with Toshiba, it's hard to see HD DVD going away quickly enough to save the high def DVD from becoming more than a curiosity. Still, the landscape is clearer than it was a few months ago. For those who feel an overwhelming desire to buy a high def DVD player, Blu-Ray is now looking to be the better bet. Even with the "porn factor" entered into the equation on HD DVD's side, it's a lot closer to the finishing line than its technologically inferior but more cost effective competition. Porn has lost none of its power over the years, but it has elected not to flex its muscles in the high def DVD realm.

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